The Ashes plan or horses for courses?

To anyone following the build-up to today's England team selection for the first of the two upcoming Tests against the West Indies, that selection will have come as a surprise - neither Ian Bell, nor Michael Vaughan (around whom speculation has centred) made the 12-man squad, nor even Owais Shah, with Ravi Bopara preferred for the No. 3 berth, whilst Steve Harmison was passed over in favour of Durham teammate, Graham Onions, and Yorkshire's Tim Bresnan.

What is unclear about the selection, however, is how far it signals England's Ashes intentions. A top 7 of Strauss, Cook, Bopara, Pietersen, Collingwood, Prior and Broad may look adequate against the inexperienced West Indies attack, but it is surely a little lightweight to face the Australians. At No.8, Broad was a luxury, but, at No.7, he will shoulder run-scoring responsibility; Bopara scored one century against West Indies at No.6 (after being dropped on 4), but coming in first down against a top bowling attack on pitches with some life (Lord's aside) is quite a different matter. Putting two players in 'make or break' situations inevitably pressurises the rest of the batting line-up.

The 5-bowler selection may be a reflection of the difficulty of forcing a result at Lord's (the last 6 Tests there have been drawn), rather than a statement for the summer, although it's worth remembering that the team for the final Windies Test of the winter had the same balance. If this balance works well in the first Tests, it could well be kept for the summer, especially if Flintoff returns at No.7.

Whatever the side's balance, players I'd regard, at this stage, as inked-in Ashes certainties are Strauss(c.), Cook (reluctantly), Pietersen, Collingwood, Prior (with reservations), Broad and Anderson. With Swann or Panesar as the main spinner, this leaves 3 further places up for grabs: 2 batting and 1 bowling if England are being conservative, 2 bowling and 1 batting if caution is thrown to the wind, and one of each if Flintoff is fit.

The brusque message sent to Bell and Harmison, the most notable 'snubees', is that they are going to have to make themselves impossible to leave out between now and July, rather than simply returning to 'their' spots in the team. Bell, in particular, repeatedly puts being dropped down to a 3-month loss of form, rather than a failure, over a longer period, to do justice to his talent by scoring match-dictating centuries under pressure.

In the race for Ashes places, it's all to play for, which is just as it should be. Since Andy Flower doesn't have the luxury of a settled team, the best he can do is to stimulate competition for places and hope that the results will follow. It'll be interesting to see which players react best.

Suggestions for England's next coach?

As I write, a Dimitri Mascarenhas-inspired England are fighting back well in the first innings of the 4th one-dayer. It is worth noting, in passing, that Mascarenhas' ODI batting strike rate of 96.41 is the best in the England team and his economy rate of 4.53 second only to Flintoff's (in spite of the Chris Gayle pasting in the last match) and far ahead of his next best teammate - the statistics aren't the full story, but Shane Warne's perennially high estimation of Mascarenhas' potential in international one-day cricket may perhaps be justified.

The main significance of this match, though, is that it may determine whether Andy Flower can really be deemed a credible candidate for the vacant England coach's job - especially if, as seems very possible, the series ends today. With only one victory over the Windies this winter - and that largely down to the Duckworth-Lewis miscalculations of his opposite number, John Dyson - Flower can surely not compete with seasoned international coaches such as John Wright and Mickey Arthur, tipped for the job in the Sunday Times by John Stern, editor of the Wisden Cricketer. The (much-cited) strength of Flower's relationship with Strauss is all well and good, but how hard can it really be to get on with the affable England captain?

Yet I share Scyld Berry's scepticism that Arthur, on the brink of bringing South Africa to the pinnacle in both forms of the game, would choose to leave that challenge behind. In Arthur's interview on Radio Five Live this morning, he doesn't quite rule the possibility out (the very fact of giving the interview might be viewed as putting himself in the shop window), but seems to stress that he sees the England job as something he'd like to do further down the line (most probably after his contract with SA ends in 2012).

John Wright and John Dyson have had some success with India and Sri Lanka respectively, but both are at early stages of projects with New Zealand and West Indies. Stories of Wright's often confrontational dressing-room approach - he once took Sehwag by the collar after a reckless dismissal - might also work against him. With Graham Ford also ruling himself out and John Buchanan evidently enjoying the prospect of managing the Kolkata Knight Riders, it is hard to see what precisely the head-hunters' options are...

Any ideas?