All to play for in the Qualifiers final round

After a far from disgraceful loss against Canada and a triumph against the fancied Scots, the Afghans' chances of qualification for the World Cup (in the top 4) or, failing that, one-day international status (the top 6) have come down to their very last match against Namibia on Monday morning - the official site is the place to watch events unfold live and to see video highlights from throughout the tournament.

The other fixtures in that last round of matches are Ireland v Kenya, Canada v Netherlands and Scotland v UAE, with the table currently standing as follows:-

Team	Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	N/R	Pts	Net RR
Ireland	6	5	1	0	0	10	+0.860
Canada	6	4	2	0	0	8	+0.855
Kenya	6	3	3	0	0	6	+0.006
Netherlands	6	3	3	0	0	6	-0.019
U.A.E.	6	3	3	0	0	6	-0.813
Namibia	6	2	4	0	0	4	-0.022
Afghanistan	6	2	4	0	0	4	-0.316
Scotland	6	2	4	0	0	4	-0.576

Even though Ireland are guaranteed a place in the final of the competition, I'd be surprised if they eased up against Kenya, who will need something special from Steve Tikolo to bounce back from a huge 201-run defeat at the hands of Namibia. Scotland will be fighting tooth and claw to hold on to their one-day international status, a huge shock given the 6 professionals in their side - the criticism coming their way could well spur them to victory against the UAE.

If the Canadians then beat the Dutch - very possible given that their star player Ryan ten Doeschate returned to Essex for the start of the county season after his one-man run chase against Namibia - the five teams placed 3rd-7th will all have won 3 games and qualification will come down to Net Run Rate. If the Afghans post a hefty win against Namibia, they stand a chance of leapfrogging one of Kenya and Holland, the teams I've picked to lose, and securing a top-4 spot.

The problem is that almost nothing has gone as expected in this exciting, evenly matched tournament and the Namibians have been very solid in the tournament's second stage. Nonetheless, reading interviews with any of the Afghan players reminds one that many stranger things have happened in the past two years.

(If, after all that, you'd like someone else's predictions, Will Luke's on-the-spot assessment of the teams' chances can be heard here.)

Not Michael Vaughan...

Earlier today, Afghanistan went through with a whimper to the Super Eight phase, after losing to the UAE by 5 wickets and seeing Bermuda beaten by the Dutch. They will start that phase from the bottom of the table and it is, alas, hard to see them making a great deal of movement from that position, with the ruthless Irish side awaiting them on Saturday and the second-placed Canadians on Monday.

Nonetheless, the World Cup Qualifiers have provided a welcome distraction from the movement of Michael Vaughan towards the forefront of media speculation ahead of this summer's home test series against West Indies and Australia. The traditional English season-opener between the MCC and the champion county, Durham, starts tomorrow, with attention focusing on the battle between MCC batsmen Ian Bell, Vaughan and Rob Key for the number 3 berth that Owais Shah failed to make his own in the West Indies.

Even the eminently sensible Lawrence Booth, one of the very best cricket writers around, has put the case for Vaughan's reinstatement, arguing that "England tend not to beat Australia by playing it safe." Certainly Andrew Strauss would be well-advised to take note of the importance of risk-taking - he has historically been ultra-conservative in setting a total, whether sending in James Anderson as nightwatchman against the West Indies this year or pressing on to his own century against Pakistan in 2006, and cannot afford to pass up any comparable opportunity to force the game against the Aussies - but this argument surely cannot be made to pick a man who has scored only 2 Test centuries in his last 17 matches. Booth may have a certain claim to authority, having been a firm advocate of Kevin Pietersen before the 2005 series, but Pietersen had just taken a one-day series against South Africa unprecedentedly by storm, whilst Vaughan has scored one century against Surrey in a pre-season tournament in Abu Dhabi.

If Vaughan is picked, as Booth suggests, for his tactical nous, the effect, ironically, would be to implement the second of the demands (the other being Peter Moores' departure) that brought about Kevin Pietersen's unceremonious downfall as captain. In short, it would be an absurd move that would highlight once again the absurdity of England's management since the end of the Indian tour. I would love to be proven wrong, since there are few finer summer sights than a Vaughan cover drive - there can, however, be few more aggravating than that of Vaughan walking off with his trademark quizzical glance pitchwards, stumps strewn everywhere.

Afghanistan's opening match

For those of you on tenterhooks as to how the Afghans fared in their first match, the result was a 5-wicket win at a canter, with fine all-round performances from Mohammad Nabi and, in particular, Karim Khan. In the finest village cricket tradition, the latter took off his wicketkeeping gloves to bowl (after a finger injury), only to scythe through the Danish batting line-up. A (slightly) fuller match report can be read here; you can also find the BBC leaping on the Cricket Tragics bandwagon here

Lying in wait for them next (on Thursday morning) are Bermuda and their 20-stone+ star spinner, Dwayne Leverock, fresh from a miserly spell of 10-5-13-1 in the defeat against the UAE (the Dutch were the group's other winners). Though Bermuda also have former Glamorgan batsman, David Hemp, in their ranks, their cricket has been in alarming decline since qualification for the 2007 World Cup and the team has lost their first two matches in South Africa - another eminently winnable game for the Afghans!