All to play for in the Qualifiers final round

After a far from disgraceful loss against Canada and a triumph against the fancied Scots, the Afghans' chances of qualification for the World Cup (in the top 4) or, failing that, one-day international status (the top 6) have come down to their very last match against Namibia on Monday morning - the official site is the place to watch events unfold live and to see video highlights from throughout the tournament.

The other fixtures in that last round of matches are Ireland v Kenya, Canada v Netherlands and Scotland v UAE, with the table currently standing as follows:-

Team	Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	N/R	Pts	Net RR
Ireland	6	5	1	0	0	10	+0.860
Canada	6	4	2	0	0	8	+0.855
Kenya	6	3	3	0	0	6	+0.006
Netherlands	6	3	3	0	0	6	-0.019
U.A.E.	6	3	3	0	0	6	-0.813
Namibia	6	2	4	0	0	4	-0.022
Afghanistan	6	2	4	0	0	4	-0.316
Scotland	6	2	4	0	0	4	-0.576

Even though Ireland are guaranteed a place in the final of the competition, I'd be surprised if they eased up against Kenya, who will need something special from Steve Tikolo to bounce back from a huge 201-run defeat at the hands of Namibia. Scotland will be fighting tooth and claw to hold on to their one-day international status, a huge shock given the 6 professionals in their side - the criticism coming their way could well spur them to victory against the UAE.

If the Canadians then beat the Dutch - very possible given that their star player Ryan ten Doeschate returned to Essex for the start of the county season after his one-man run chase against Namibia - the five teams placed 3rd-7th will all have won 3 games and qualification will come down to Net Run Rate. If the Afghans post a hefty win against Namibia, they stand a chance of leapfrogging one of Kenya and Holland, the teams I've picked to lose, and securing a top-4 spot.

The problem is that almost nothing has gone as expected in this exciting, evenly matched tournament and the Namibians have been very solid in the tournament's second stage. Nonetheless, reading interviews with any of the Afghan players reminds one that many stranger things have happened in the past two years.

(If, after all that, you'd like someone else's predictions, Will Luke's on-the-spot assessment of the teams' chances can be heard here.)

Down to earth for the Afghans

After their second consecutive win in the match against Bermuda, the Afghans have had their World Cup dreams rather punctured by defeats against Kenya and the Netherlands.

As well as leaving their qualification for the Super Eight stage in some doubt - if the Bermudans beat the Dutch in tomorrow morning's round of matches, the Afghans need to win or draw against the UAE - these defeats will be carried through to that stage if the Dutch and Kenyans both qualify, leaving the Afghans needing wins against Associate heavyweights, Ireland, Scotland and Canada, and feature writers wondering when they'll next get such good material (click here to read Will Luke's interview with Afghan batsman, Raees Ahmadzai, about cricket in the refugee camps).

Whether or not there is a fairytale ending to this leg of the Afghan story, their progress could do wonders for the game's development at Associate level, a matter of critical importance in view of the political problems prevailing in Zimbabwe and Pakistan and the stagnation, Shakib Al Hasan aside, of the Bangladeshi national side. Effectively, this leaves seven Test-quality sides still playing reasonably frequently: India, Australia and South Africa on the top table, Sri Lanka not far off, though still starved of regular series against top teams, and England kept off the bottom by generally poor - sportingly and economically - West Indies and New Zealand sides (an analysis borne out by the official ICC rankings).

The recent series between Australia and South Africa may have shown Test cricket at its see-sawing best and Dhoni's India is excitingly consistent, but there is a risk that this will become an isolated spectacle. The Afghans, then, may bring hope for more than one reason.

From Kabul to Centurion?

It began as a beacon of hope for refugees returning to a war-torn region. When an Afghan XI then thrashed a touring MCC team in Mumbai in 2006, there was excitement at the promise of swashbuckling opening batsman and legspinner, Mohammed Nabi, and fast bowler Hameed Hassan, immediately recruited as MCC Young Cricketers. Though a successful tour of England followed later that year, with the Afghans undefeated in matches against some strong county 2nd XIs, none could have foreseen the national team's whirlwind series of promotions through the divisions of the World Cricket League, with tournaments won in Jersey (Division 5), Tanzania (Division 4) and Argentina (Division 3) in 2008 and January 2009.

They are now in South Africa, one of 12 teams competing for 4 places in the 2011 World Cup - qualification would spark scenes of delight on the streets of Kabul, since cricket is the Afghan national game, having persisted even under the Taliban. Hardened by a month's training in Pakistan under the auspices of the great Javed Miandad, the team start the competition this Wednesday morning, with a must-win game against Denmark, one of its weaker teams. Realistically, they also need to beat at least one of Kenya, Holland, Bermuda and the U.A.E to qualify for the tournament's second phase, where they will face the likes of Ireland, Scotland and Canada, habitual qualifiers for the main tournament. Few would expect them to reach that stage, but then again few expected them to reach this one - find out here how far the Afghans' momentum can carry them.

A fuller preview of the tournament as a whole can be found courtesy of Will Luke at cricinfo, everyone's 2nd favourite cricket website, and the Afghans' progress can also be followed through star man Hameed Hassan's blog. The tournament's official site may also be of use..